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Prediction for CME (2025-03-21T16:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-03-21T16:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37948/-1
CME Note: Faint halo CME with a bulk visible mainly to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery (more easily seen in difference imagery). There is no STEREO A COR2 imagery for this event due to a data gap. The source of this CME appears to be a large dimming region centered near N02E07 starting around 2025-03-21T15:49Z with a southeast directionality based on the minor EUV wave visible in SDO/AIA 211 and 193 imagery. There's a large coronal hole situated E/SE of the dimming region and a separate coronal hole due west of the dimming region which may have contributed to the deflection visible on the solar disk in SDO/AIA imagery. This source location appears to be a sympathetic eruption to the M1.2 flare from AR14028 (S17W33) seen to the SW in SDO/AIA 131 imagery. || Arrival: Characterized by an initially slow rise in Btotal from 7.12nT to 9.65nT at 2025-03-24T00:16Z, a shock up to 12.44nT at 2025-03-24T00:16Z, and further rise to a peak Btotal of 16.8nT at 2025-03-24T01:14Z. Bz was largely neutral with several periods of sustained southward values around -5 to -10 nT, reaching a peak -9.82 nT at 2025-03-24T01:21Z. Solar wind speed rose from around 360 km/s to 390 km/s, briefly dipped down to around 350 km/s, then rose to a peak of around 430 km/s. Density rose from around 6 p/cc to a peak of 35.3 p/cc at 2025-03-24T04:40Z. Temperature data did not respond much to this arrival signature, remaining largely level. This is likely the late arrival of CME 2025-03-21T16:00Z, anticipated to give Earth a glancing blow at 2025-03-23T07:30Z (+- 7 hours).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-23T23:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-03-23T10:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

SIDC URSIGRAM 50322
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Mar 2025, 1237UT

...Coronal mass ejections: A faint partial halo CME was observed to the south- east in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from March 21 16:00 UTC. This this CME appears to originate from a dimming that occurred near the central meridian around
15:45 UTC March 21. Initial analysis suggests this CME may have an Earth directed component and may impact Earth from March 23.
A CME seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data to the south-west from around 17:00 UTC March 21 was likely associated with the M1.2 flare. This CME is not expected to be Earth directed.

Lead Time: 33.97 hour(s)
Difference: 13.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2025-03-22T13:32Z

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